Every day, the global value in foreign currency movements (transfer of money overseas) or foreign exchange trading (forex) exceeds 1.9 trillion US Dollars.

Foreign exchange forecasting is undertaken by thousands of highly skilled and experienced foreign exchange dealers and currency speculators trading the markets 24 hours a day. Notwithstanding this, the reality is that the number of long term losers is pretty similar to the number of long term winners.

Even though these seasoned foreign exchange dealers are dedicated, intuitive, well supported by computer modelling, well connected and well informed they still lose money on many of their positions.

It follows that if these experienced professionals regularly take losses on the markets, one time investors should avoid speculation altogether.

The bald truth: in the absence of strong and readily identifiable external factors (conflict in the middle east, central bank interest adjustments) the probability of markets moving up on any day is broadly similar to the probability that they will move down.

A prudent investor will take professional advice, and execute the trade without attempting to ‘ride the trends’.